This is the reason Samdech Hun Sen used a card (which is the audio clip) to end the friendship with Thaksin

 

...Thailand’s new 32nd Prime Minister, Anutin Charnvirakul, if placed in the context of nationalism and the military side’s stance, according to his political history and behavior he has shown, according to the majority opinion, it is said that the Cambodia-Thailand border issue might intensify further. But the long-term vision of Samdech Techo Hun Sen can let us see that Thailand still needs a long time before it can have a Prime Minister with full power.

The factor leading to this change cannot overlook the role of Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin’s daughter. In Thai political history, we see that every time there is a disagreement in parliament, Cambodia is always dragged in as a political tool to increase domestic popularity. However, Cambodia cannot become an object of use according to Thai political emotions.

During her term, Thailand not only affected its own politics, but relations with Cambodia became more severe in problems. This is the reason Samdech Hun Sen used a card (which is the audio clip) to end the friendship with Thaksin to point out that the relationship between Cambodia and Prime Minister Paetongtarn could not continue negotiating, meaning this former Prime Minister did not have full authority and used disrespectful words toward the Cambodian leadership, which affected bilateral relations.

The Thai parliament voted to support Mr. Anutin, but that support is just a temporary method. The instability and power competition in Thailand show that the lifespan of the new government might only last 4 months until the dissolution of parliament, to allow the people to use the power to vote to choose the Prime Minister according to democracy.

Even if Mr. Anutin can increase tension with Cambodia if he uses nationalism and stands with the military side, the bad impact on Cambodia cannot last long. Before the Thai parliament had the new Prime Minister selection, Samdech had a deep prediction of the Thai political outcome. The phrase “not more than 3 months, there will be a new Prime Minister” showed the strong position as a political card holder. Although some Thai media criticized that this prediction was just normal talk that anyone could say.

And this card is not something that can have a bad impact on Cambodia. On the contrary, it can provide benefits to Cambodia in the following ways: First, it can allow Thailand to have a new Prime Minister, and Cambodia hopes that some kind of negotiation to reduce border heat can occur between the two countries. Second, Cambodia can use Thai political instability as a confirmation to the world that Cambodia has higher stability.

Third, within 4 months, the new Thai Prime Minister cannot solve the problem of canceling the MOU with Cambodia.

Fourth, the instability in Thailand opens opportunities for Cambodia to be more active in international diplomacy with ASEAN and world organizations without disturbance. The dissolution of the Thai parliament and the arrangement of new elections requires a long time. Therefore, finding a Prime Minister with full and true stability might require waiting for 12 months or more.

During this time, Cambodia can hold the strategy of using this opportunity to use diplomacy to attract international will, having enough time to prepare the process of the case for the International Court of Justice.